NASA HBG II Contract: A Reported $425 Million Ceiling, Dec. 4 Proposals, and an Incumbent Already at $493 Million
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center reportedly released the final solicitation for Hydrosphere, Biosphere and Geophysics (HBG) Support Services II on Oct. 21, 2026. The NASA HBG II contract is reported as a five-year, small business set-aside indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) vehicle with a $425 million ceiling, questions due Nov. 4, and proposals due Dec. 4. It would reportedly replace contract 80GSFC20C0044, held by Science Systems and Applications, Inc. (SSAI), which ends Mar. 31, 2027.
The revenue stake is new-business capture for small businesses, with retention risk for SSAI. If you are a founder, CEO, BD lead, or capture lead and your firm holds Goddard Earth science past performance, this acquisition vehicle is a reported set-aside to price. For a market entrant without it, a prime bid means competing for a Goddard laboratory-support vehicle with no comparable past performance against bidders who can show it, so I would team rather than prime. The $425 million is a ceiling, not funded demand.
| Field | Answer |
|---|---|
| Signal | Final solicitation for HBG II, reportedly released Oct. 21, 2026 |
| BD implication | A reported small business set-aside for Earth science research support, with a reported hybrid of cost-plus and fixed-price task orders |
| Customer | NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Division, HBG subdivision laboratories |
| Buyer | NASA Goddard Space Flight Center procurement |
| Funding | Reported $425 million ceiling; no obligation beyond any minimum; no appropriation tied to the figure |
| Vehicle / path | HBG II IDIQ, five years, small business set-aside (reported); predecessor 80GSFC20C0044 |
| Incumbents / ecosystem | SSAI, Lanham, Maryland; 2020 competition drew two offers |
| Access strategy | Prime with Goddard past performance; otherwise team or take a scoped subcontract |
| Timing | Questions Nov. 4; proposals Dec. 4; award expected April 2027 (all reported) |
| Confidence | High on the incumbent record; Moderate on the recompete’s terms |
| Pursuit posture | PURSUE (small businesses with Goddard past performance); TEAM (without it); DEFEND (SSAI); WATCH (large businesses) |
| Upgrade triggers | Evaluation factors, a stated minimum, and Q&A answers that confirm the scope and task-order mix |
| Downgrade triggers | A protest, an amendment that changes the set-aside, an award that slips past the extension period, or a final ceiling other than $425 million |
- The statement of work reportedly covers six areas: science, computing, instrumentation development, calibration and validation, field campaigns, and communications and public outreach.
- The incumbent contract is coded NAICS 541715, research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences.
- The solicitation reportedly allows both cost-plus-fixed-fee and firm-fixed-price task orders. The incumbent is cost-plus-fixed-fee only.
Why the $425 Million Ceiling Is Not New Money
The $425 million figure is the maximum NASA published for the incumbent contract in January 2020. The reported recompete number repeats it. Over the life of that contract the ceiling grew 44 percent, to $613,875,000, and obligations reached $493,284,723, which is 16 percent above the original maximum. If the final ceiling differs from $425 million, the headroom math below changes.
NASA’s 2020 release set a five-year ordering period beginning April 1, 2020. The contract now runs to Mar. 31, 2027, two years past the original period. Ceiling increases and extensions carried it there.
| Measure | Incumbent at award (2020) | Incumbent today | HBG II (reported) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ordering maximum or ceiling | $425 million maximum | $613.9 million ceiling | $425 million ceiling |
| Obligated | Not stated | $493.3 million obligated | Not stated |
| Period | Five-year ordering period | Apr. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2027 | Five years |
| Pricing | Cost-plus-fixed-fee | Cost-plus-fixed-fee | Cost-plus-fixed-fee and firm-fixed-price task orders |
Treat the $425 million figure as a size limit on what NASA may order, not a budget. If your capture plan sizes the pursuit off $425 million, rebuild it from the incumbent’s actual pace in the next section.
What Five Years at the Incumbent’s Pace Would Cost
The incumbent’s record suggests a five-year HBG II would use most of a $425 million ceiling but not all of it. Obligations of $493.3 million over the roughly 78 months from April 2020 to the Sept. 24, 2026 record date average about $76 million a year. Outlays of $439.6 million, which measure cash paid and not ceiling use, average about $68 million a year.
Orders use up ceiling, so the obligation rate is the right measure. Five years at about $76 million a year comes to about $380 million. That leaves about $45 million of headroom under $425 million. This is arithmetic on the incumbent’s totals, not a NASA forecast.
- If scope and staffing hold, the pace leaves about $45 million of headroom, a margin that labor-cost escalation or modest scope growth could use up before year five. Beyond that, growth would need a ceiling increase like the one this vehicle received.
- If NASA moves work toward firm-fixed-price task orders, a bidder carries cost risk the incumbent’s cost-plus contract did not impose.
- If NASA adds scope, the ceiling and the pace will diverge faster than this estimate shows.
- If NASA trims scope or staffing, the pace falls and $425 million leaves more room than this estimate shows.
HBG II Competitive Landscape: One Named Incumbent and a Thin 2020 Field
One incumbent is identifiable. SSAI holds 80GSFC20C0044, a cost-plus-fixed-fee IDIQ awarded Jan. 29, 2020. The competition drew two offers. Award records report offer counts, not the identities of unsuccessful offerors, so the second offeror is unnamed and the historical field is small and mostly invisible.
Three categories of competitor fit a Goddard Earth science set-aside:
- Small businesses that staff Earth science research and scientific computing, where Goddard laboratory support is the differentiator.
- Small research firms with university ties, which bring research partnerships.
- Larger integrators seeking subcontract roles under a small business prime.
SSAI’s eligibility turns on its current size status under the solicitation’s size standard, which is a question to put to NASA.
For a small business, a thin field cuts both ways. If the 2020 pattern of two offers holds, a bidder with real Goddard laboratory experience may face few rivals. A bidder without it competes against firms that can show that experience and, if SSAI remains eligible, an incumbent whose staff already work in the labs.
The Timeline From the Nov. 4 Questions Date to an April 2027 Award
The dates leave a gap between the incumbent’s end date and the expected award. The incumbent ends Mar. 31, 2027. Award is reportedly expected in April 2027. A notice of intent to extend the incumbent contract is reportedly listed alongside the recompete, which points to a bridge, though its length and terms are unstated.
- Nov. 4, 2026 (reported): questions due, 14 days after the Oct. 21 release.
- Dec. 4, 2026, 2:00 p.m. Eastern (reported): proposals due.
- Mar. 31, 2027: the incumbent contract’s current end date.
- April 2027 (reported): expected HBG II award.
The 2020 award included a 45-day phase-in under a separate ordering agreement. That precedent suggests the transition will carry a phase-in period. NASA has not said how long this one will be.
For incumbent staff, the transition date matters more than the award date. For a bidder, retaining that staff is a pricing and teaming question to settle before Dec. 4, not after award.
What Each Reader Should Do Before the Nov. 4 Questions Date
Your next step depends on whether you can show Goddard Earth science work. Check your own size status against the solicitation’s size standard first, because no other step matters if you are not eligible to prime.
- Founder, BD lead, or capture lead at a small business with Goddard Earth science past performance: map your staff and past performance to the six reported work areas, and submit questions by Nov. 4 on minimums, task-order mix, and labor categories.
- Small business market entrant with no NASA past performance: contact a firm that holds Goddard laboratory experience about a subcontract or teaming role before you spend money on a prime bid.
- Price the cost-plus-fixed-fee and firm-fixed-price mix. The incumbent’s cost-plus history is the baseline to beat, and fixed-price orders move cost risk to you.
- SSAI: confirm your size status and the terms of any extension directly with the contracting officer.
- Large business or systems integrator: plan a subcontract position, and start teaming conversations before Dec. 4.
I rate this PURSUE for a small business with the past performance, with questions in by Nov. 4, and TEAM for a small business without it, with a teaming agreement before Dec. 4. For SSAI the posture is DEFEND, pending its size status. A large business should WATCH for a subcontract role. An amendment that alters the set-aside, a protest, an award that slips past the extension period, or a final ceiling other than $425 million would change that priority.
FAQ
What is the NASA HBG II contract?
The NASA HBG II contract is Goddard’s follow-on to contract 80GSFC20C0044 for Earth science research support. It is reported as a five-year, small business set-aside IDIQ that covers science, computing, instrumentation, calibration and validation, field campaigns, and communications and outreach.
Is HBG II a small business set-aside, and when are proposals due?
HBG II is reported as a small business set-aside, with proposals due Dec. 4, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Questions are due Nov. 4. Confirm both dates in the solicitation before relying on them.
Is the $425 million figure new money?
No. It is a ceiling, and the reported figure equals the maximum NASA published for the incumbent contract in 2020. That contract’s ceiling later grew to $613.9 million, so the number describes what NASA may order, not what it has funded.
Who is the incumbent, and how much has it been obligated?
SSAI of Lanham, Maryland, holds the incumbent contract. Obligations total $493.3 million against a $613.9 million ceiling, with a Mar. 31, 2027 end date.
What happens between Mar. 31, 2027 and the award?
An extension or bridge is the likely mechanism, since award is reportedly expected in April 2027. A notice of intent to extend the incumbent contract is reportedly listed alongside the recompete. The length of any bridge is the question to put to the contracting officer.
What would invalidate this analysis?
A final ceiling other than $425 million, an amendment that raises the ceiling, a changed set-aside, or added scope would change the headroom estimate. A protest would delay the award. The next observable events are NASA’s answers to questions after Nov. 4 and any solicitation amendment.
