Redhorse Army Predictive Sustainment Contract: At Least 10 Data-Capture Units Planned by Nov. 6, Not Predictive Software

What the Redhorse Army Predictive Sustainment Contract Buys

Redhorse’s Army predictive sustainment contract is a prototype award to capture data from tactical vehicles at the edge. That data then moves to commanders over weak networks. Redhorse, an Arlington, Virginia data and IT firm, announced the award on Oct. 6, 2026, without a value. Its name, “Predictive Sustainment: Real-Time Data,” exactly matches an Army Applications Laboratory (AAL) special topic. No Army document yet ties the award to it. AAL is a Department of War innovation group, and its broad agency announcement places it under Army Futures Command.

For most readers, the revenue question is new-business capture after the prototype. The special topic closed in June. Teaming with awardees stays open until the February 2027 refinement window. So does the follow-on phase scheduled for months 10 to 12. This is a validated prototype buying event, not yet a validated production opportunity. No follow-on vehicle, budget line, or solicitation exists today.

• The work is coded as research and development: the notice used NAICS 541715 and product code AJ13. Those codes describe the work, not the appropriation behind it.
• AAL expected “one or more contracts with a 12-month period of performance,” and at least two companies have announced awards that match this special topic.
• The broad agency announcement behind it stays open to new white papers until April 4, 2029.

AAL Told Bidders It Was Not Buying Predictive Sustainment Software

The name says predictive sustainment, but this round buys the sensors and edge hardware that collect the data. AAL’s webinar said so directly. That changes who competes now and who waits.

The briefing said the notice “is specifically for the sensors and technologies that will gather and encapsulate sustainment data.” It asked for technology needing “little to no pre-development.” Solutions must connect to the vehicle’s engine control unit over the CAN bus. That link must use common protocols such as SAE J1939 or J1708. Each unit must run on 12-24 volt vehicle power and report on its own at set intervals. It must store data for up to 24 hours. It must be compatible with SATCOM, radio, and Ethernet and expose a standard application programming interface (API). It should be designed for later integration into MILTAK 5.1. The deck calls these abbreviated objectives.

Redhorse’s announced design fits that frame: its edge software runs on Tsecond’s ruggedized BRYCK Micro-R computer on the vehicle. Any analytics in that software go beyond what AAL said this round buys.

Five of the nine platforms appear below. Qualifiers such as “limited” and “primary” describe how far each commodity applies to a vehicle, not whether the data can be collected. HIPPO is the Load Handling System-compatible water tank rack.

For a predictive-maintenance or AI product firm, this round was never yours to win. AI in government at the tactical edge depends on this data arriving first. AAL’s broad agency announcement lists predictive-logistics analytics under its Contested Logistics focus area. Still, no AAL document announces an analytics buy tied to this effort. Any later analytics work would consume the standard API these prototypes must expose.

The 12-Month Prototype Calendar Sets the Teaming Window

AAL’s webinar planned the period of performance in five phases, from a fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 start to a fourth-quarter fiscal 2027 end. Awards were announced in early October, after the planned Month 1 orientation. That leaves about four weeks to the Nov. 6 fielding. Treat the dates below as the Army’s pre-award plan, not a confirmed schedule.

1. Month 1, September 2026: project orientation with the operational unit.
2. Month 3, Nov. 6, 2026: equip and field. Vendors “should expect to deliver and integrate at least 10 units” by this date.
3. Months 4-6, February 2027: refinement window for product adaptation after Soldier touchpoints.
4. Months 7-9: validation and operational evaluation.
5. Months 10-12: follow-on.

The deck lets awardees combine engine data with their own sensors. A solution “does not need to cover every vehicle with every data type available,” it says. An awardee’s first fielding may leave a gap, such as water level on the M149 trailer, which has no engine data to tap. If so, the February refinement window is the likeliest point to add a component.

What the Public Record Leaves Out: Value, Instrument, and Obligation

Neither company has disclosed a value, instrument type, or obligation. Redhorse called its award a contract. The Army’s pre-award documents also use contract language (“one or more contracts,” “Contract Start”). That points toward a contract without settling it. The broad agency announcement allows five instruments: a procurement contract, a grant, a cooperative agreement, an other transaction for research, or an other transaction for prototype under 10 U.S.C. 4022.

The gap fits normal timing. Defense contract actions reach the public federal award record on a roughly 90-day delay, so a September award would not be expected to show until December.

The instrument decides where each Army predictive sustainment contract can lead. Under 10 U.S.C. 4022(f), a prototype other transaction can lead to a follow-on production award without a new competition, but only if three conditions hold. The agreement provides for a follow-on. Participants were selected competitively. The prototype is completed successfully. Any of the other four instruments rules that path out. A prototype other transaction also generally needs one of three things. One is a nontraditional entrant (in statute, a nontraditional defense contractor) or nonprofit research institution participating significantly. Another is a team made up of small businesses or nontraditional defense contractors. The last is a one-third non-federal cost share. Ask an awardee team which instrument it holds before you invest in teaming.

The follow-on could take one of three shapes:

• A sole follow-on to one awardee would close the prime slot but could still need sensor and hardware subcontractors.
• A new special topic for analytics would open a fresh competition for software firms.
• A transition to an Army program office would move the buyer away from AAL entirely.

Who Is Already Positioned in Army Predictive Sustainment

Two teams have announced awards that match this initiative. Two more firms hold adjacent Army positions, each its own acquisition environment.

• Redhorse and Tsecond. Redhorse leads integration and software. Tsecond supplies the BRYCK Micro-R edge node.
• Detroit Defense and team. Detroit Defense is prime and lead integrator for the 1st Cavalry Division at Fort Hood, with Parker Hannifin on vehicle data collection, PredictiveIQ on physics-based AI, Persistent Systems on its Wave Relay mobile network, and Getac on rugged computing.
• Rune Technologies. Rune announced a five-year, $99 million IDIQ for its TyrOS logistics platform in June 2026, a ceiling, not obligated spend. That vehicle is separate from this special topic.
• Air. Air reports its Enterprise Readiness platform runs with the 4th Infantry Division under the Army’s Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) program. That is a different unit and a different program.

Detroit Defense says its award builds on two Army programs it developed: Data Integration for Ground Systems and Digital Logbook. It says both hold an authority to operate (ATO). An existing ATO is a switching cost a competitor has to overcome.

How Small and Mid-Size Vendors Should Act Before February 2027

Edge, sensor, and rugged-hardware firms are at TEAM: approach the two awardee teams now. AI and analytics firms are at SHAPE, through a white paper. Mid-market integrators are at WATCH until the months 10-12 decision.

• Sensor or rugged-hardware small business: map your product against the vehicle data matrix and name the data gap it closes, such as water level on the M149 trailer.
• DIB sub with edge hardware: send a one-page capability note to the Redhorse and Detroit Defense teams before the February 2027 refinement window.
• AI product firm: write a white paper under broad agency announcement W911NF-24-S-0008 for analytics that consume a standard vehicle-data API, knowing the announcement guarantees no funding for any area.
• Mid-market systems integrator: set a calendar check for months 10-12 and for any AAL follow-on or transition announcement.
• Every BD lead and capture lead: check your interface claims against this round’s stated objectives (J1939/J1708, 12-24 volt power, 24-hour storage, MILTAK 5.1 readiness), a likely but unconfirmed bar for any follow-on.

I classify the article as a whole as SHAPE. AAL is a named buyer, and the broad agency announcement is open. A follow-on phase is scheduled, but the prototype seat is taken.

For a firm new to AAL, the broad agency announcement accepts white papers at any time. It returns feedback within 30 days on request. It also says AAL “does not necessarily have funding for any particular research area at any given time.”

Watch for an AAL or Army notice that names a follow-on vehicle, or a new special topic for the analytics layer. Either moves this to an active pursuit. A slipped Nov. 6 fielding, or a follow-on handed to one awardee with no subcontract need, would push it back to watching.

FAQ

What is the Army’s Predictive Sustainment: Real-Time Data prototype?

It is an AAL special topic to capture maintenance-fault, fuel, water, and ammunition data from armored brigade combat team vehicles. The goal is to send that data to command nodes over degraded, disconnected, intermittent, and low-bandwidth networks. White papers were due June 12, 2026.

Who else won besides Redhorse?

Detroit Defense announced an AAL award on Oct. 5, 2026, for the 1st Cavalry Division at Fort Hood, with a scope that matches this special topic. AAL planned for “one or more” awards, so more teams may exist.

Who owns the budget, and which contracting office matters?

AAL owns the requirement, co-issued with the Army’s Pathway for Innovation and Technology, and Army Contracting Command-Aberdeen Proving Ground’s Durham office handles contracting. The work is coded as research and development, not production.

Can a small business still get into this effort?

Yes, most likely through subcontracts. The prime awards are made, but some data in the vehicle data matrix, such as water level on the M149 trailer, likely can’t come from engine electronics.

What would make this a production opportunity?

A follow-on award or a named transition vehicle would. Suppose an awardee holds a competitively awarded prototype other transaction that provides for a follow-on. If it completes the project successfully, federal law allows a follow-on production award without a new competition. Watch for AAL’s months 10-12 decision and any program office taking ownership.